Marginal Improvement in Macro Sentiment and Sustained Constraints on the Supply Side SHFE Tin Prices Showed a Slight Rebound Overall [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On September 11, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, up 1,780 yuan or 0.66% from the previous trading day. The intraday trading range was between 270,430 yuan/mt and 272,680 yuan/mt, showing a pattern of fluctuation at highs. Meanwhile, LME tin closed at $34,635/mt, up 1.76%, with a trading volume of 407 lots and a slight decrease in open interest. The mild rebound in tin prices that day was mainly supported by a marginal improvement in macro sentiment and ongoing supply-side constraints. The US August PPI YoY growth rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, while the core PPI fell 0.1% MoM. This data significantly weakened the US dollar index and strengthened market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September, thereby providing a boost for US dollar-denominated base metals. However, overall market sentiment remained cautious, as investors closely monitored the release of US CPI data in the evening for clearer policy signals.

From a fundamental perspective, the tight supply situation provided core support for tin prices. Domestically, tin ore mining in major producing regions such as Yunnan continued to be constrained. Additionally, some smelters extended maintenance into September, further limiting refined tin output. Imported ore supplements were also not smooth. Although production in Myanmar gradually resumed, actual ore output remained low due to inefficient rainy season transportation and tightened land customs policies in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to significantly alleviate the tight raw material supply in the short term. On the demand side, a divergent pattern emerged, characterized by "traditional weakness and insufficient boost from emerging sectors." The traditional electronic solder sector performed weakly due to drags from real estate and infrastructure. Although the consumer electronics industry showed signs of mild recovery, high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with the market mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement.

Spot market trading did not become more active with the futures price rebound; instead, wait-and-see sentiment prevailed. Downstream players maintained only rigid procurement, and trader trading volumes were generally low. In the short term, SHFE tin prices showed some resilience to declines, supported by macro expectations of interest rate cuts and tight supply. However, weak demand and market resistance to high-priced resources also limited the rebound potential.